With the announcement of the Producers Guild and SAG Awards over the weekend, the Best Picture race took form—and because of the Academy’s compressed schedule, there isn’t numerous time left for momentum to shift or for a darkish horse to surge. At the very least, it appears clear that the Best Picture nominees have sorted themselves into two tiers. In the happy-just-to-be-included class, now we have Ford v Ferrari (the movie with the lowest nomination whole—4—of the 9 nominees), Marriage Story (too New York, too modestly scaled, too imply to hypersensitive West Coasters), Jojo Rabbit (a popular film that by no means grew to become the breakout it wanted to be to vie for main prizes), and Little Girls, a robust and still-growing field workplace hit that would give Greta Gerwig an Oscar if it takes Best Tailored Screenplay. However any of the different 5 nominees might really win. Right here’s how they rank, in ascending order.

5. Joker
Yearly, one or two contenders for Best Picture can lay declare to representing our perpetually fractious American second. Last yr, it was BlacKkKlansman; two years in the past, it was Get Out, or maybe Three Billboards Outdoors Ebbing, Missouri; 4 years in the past, it was The Large Brief. Usually, these films lose, as a result of most Academy members choose the movie they like the finest, not the one they’d be most inclined to position in a time capsule. In the what’s-the-movie-of-its-time contest, the violent, aggrieved, about-to-boil-over Joker wins; it’s additionally the most nominated movie and the highest grosser in the contest. The difficulty is, these stats haven’t any actual historic correlation with winners. Though I don’t suppose there’s all that a lot distinction between fifth place and first this yr, Joker is a divisive film that many citizens will depart off their ballots altogether; it doesn’t really feel like a consensus selection. To vie for the Oscar, it could have needed to win one thing main alongside the method. As a substitute, its standing has been that of a sturdy, revered across-the-board nominee that’s destined to get its reward with what seems to be like the near-certainty of a statuette for Joaquin Phoenix. Nonetheless, the energy of its help throughout practically each Academy department means it could possibly’t be counted out.

4. The Irishman
The awards narrative for Martin Scorsese’s large career-and-genre summation by no means fairly gained altitude the method it wanted to. Some discovered the film too lengthy or too acquainted; some have been postpone by the know-how that endowed Robert De Niro with a younger man’s face (that’s, some younger man’s face however actually not what we all know to have been his personal), then positioned it on an previous man’s physique. For a darkish, difficult three-and-a-half-hour film to win Best Picture, the vote has to really feel by some means vital; for The Irishman, the vote feels non-obligatory. Whereas a win continues to be potential, this section of voting could also be one by which the Netflix issue hurts; this weekend, six of the 9 Best Picture nominees have been amongst the high 20 grossers, making The Irishman and Marriage Story really feel comparatively invisible.

3. As soon as Upon a Time in Hollywood
Quentin Tarantino’s apparently penultimate movie would have been a straightforward favourite even 5 years in the past. It boasts the form of immense ensemble forged that the actors’ department loves, spiffy manufacturing values, an American auteur who’s made it clear he’s not planning to present voters many extra probabilities to reward him, and a Hollywood-gazes-upon-itself storyline that has powered Argo, The Artist, and Birdman to wins in the final decade. However an in depth race may be determined by the smallest of things—a cluster of voters who don’t like the explosion of orgiastic violence at the finish, a handful of New Yorkers who’re Marty guys, not Quentin guys, a bunch of spread-the-wealthers who really feel it is a film they’ll care for with a vote for Brad Pitt, or director, or screenplay. No Tarantino film has ever received Best Picture, and he’s by no means received Best Director, however—probably as a result of he has two screenwriting Oscars and probably as a result of he tends to come back off at the podium as if he couldn’t care much less—a “He’s owed” narrative by no means clicked on this season. For all that, a win for As soon as Upon a Time would shock no person.